← Curio Cavern AMB Store Championships
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Curio Cavern AMB Store Championships
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.3%
avg ELO +5.9 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1400
· range 1293–1507
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1209
Q3 1412
1507
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
